Tag ArchivesJason Muscat

FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index still at very depressed level in 2018Q4

The FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index remained below 20 for the sixth straight quarter, rising by one point to 18 in 4Q2018. The current index level means that more than eighty per cent of respondents are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions. (more…)

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Retail trade sales underwhelm in July

By Jason Muscat, FNB Senior Economic Analyst. July retail trade sales expanded 1.3% y/y, behind our expectations of a print north of 2%. As with the manufacturing data, the retail figures were drawn from a new 2018 sample, and while there were some pretty substantial revisions to the data, the sample is now more reflective […]

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2Q18 GDP confirms technical recession

By Jason Muscat, FNB Senior Economic Analyst. South Africa’s economy contracted by -0.7% qq (seasonally adjusted and annualised) in 2Q18, the second consecutive contraction, which confirmed that the country entered a technical recession in the second quarter. (more…)

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June manufacturing production: Down, but not out

By Jason Muscat, Senior Economic Analyst, FNB. June was another grim month for the manufacturing sector, which expanded by just 0.7% y/y and 0.3% m/m. (more…)

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Weak activity continues to weigh on sentiment in the construction sector

The FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index gained 3 points to register a level of 15 in 2Q2018. The sustained low confidence is explained by a deterioration in almost all of the underlying indicators, most notably construction activity and tendering competition. In summary, the civil construction sector remains under duress with little, if any, improvement likely over […]

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Pre-VAT increase buying dents retail sales

By Jason Muscat, FNB Senior Economic Analyst. April retail sales disappointed, expanding just 0.5% y/y and contracting -1.2% m/m. Of particular concern, the three month % change has now contracted for the third consecutive month. The sharp deceleration suggests that consumers may well have front-loaded purchases ahead of the April implementation of the VAT hike. […]

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1Q18 GDP disappoints even the bears

By Jason Muscat, FNB Senior Economic Analyst. 1Q18 GDP growth disappointed sharply, even against our bearish forecast of -1% q/q. Growth contracted -2.2% q/q and expanded just 0.8% y/y. As expected, the headline number was dragged lower by the mining and manufacturing sectors, which contracted by -9.9% q/q and -6.4% respectively, each shaving 0.8 percentage […]

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April inflation surprises on the low side

By Jason Muscat, FNB Senior Economic Analyst. April headline inflation surprised on the low side, printing at 4.5% y/y, below our expectations of 4.8%. Core inflation, which strips out food and non-alcoholic beverages, fuel and energy accelerated to 4.5% y/y from 4.1% the previous month. While the impact of the hikes in the April fuel […]

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