A year of uncertainty, adaptability and opportunity

For investors and advisers alike, 2025 will be remembered as a year defined by unprecedented uncertainty, and the agility it demanded. The investment landscape has left no one in doubt that we are navigating a new era. For Cogence, the year has been all about forward-thinking strategies that combine global insights with local expertise. Jonel Matthee-Ferreira, CEO and CIO at Cogence, describes 2025 succinctly as a “rollercoaster”, while Kerri-Ann Sattary, Executive and Portfolio Specialist, calls it “exciting”.

“We began the year knowing it would be one where you had to stay nimble, granular and dynamic,” says Matthee-Ferreira. “This wasn’t a year where you could set your asset allocation in January and walk away. We were actively rebalancing monthly to stay ahead of the shifts.”

From shifting tariffs and fiscal turbulence in South Africa to geopolitical rifts abroad, markets were anything but predictable. Traditional safe havens like US treasuries didn’t provide the usual cushion for portfolios and investors looked to safe have assets like gold instead, as volatility became the norm..Yet, amid the noise, opportunities emerged for those who looked deeper. “Uncertainty actually creates fantastic investment opportunities,” says Matthee-Ferreira. “It’s about recognising where to position yourself to benefit from those moments of dislocation.”

What’s driving the economic landscape

 For Sattary, the year also marked a turning point in how investors interpreted the global markets. “This was the year investors really started to understand that we’re not in a typical business cycle,” she explains. “We’re in a structural transformation being driven by what we at Cogence, alongside BlackRock, call mega forces, with themes like artificial intelligence and geopolitical fragmentation reshaping economies in real time.”

The dominance of AI continued to reshape markets, with the so-called ‘Magnificent Seven’ tech giants driving much of the developed market equity performance. Despite concerns over lofty valuations, corporate spending told another story. “Companies like Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta collectively spent $60bn in a single quarter on AI-related capital expenditure,” notes Sattary. “That shows you that this isn’t a short-term trend – this build-out is here to stay.”

Another trend was geopolitical fragmentation, particularly the tension between the US and China, which also created volatility but highlighted the continued interconnectedness of the global economy.

Closer to home, South Africa proved to be one of the year’s pleasant surprises. Despite political and logistical challenges, local equities, especially resource stocks, outperformed expectations, while the removal from the grey list and renewed global interest added a tailwind. “There’s a real sense of cautious optimism returning,” says Sattary. “With the G20 hosted in South Africa and collaboration between the private and public sectors improving, the story is becoming one of resilience and renewal.”

The power of data

As investors recalibrated to a world where uncertainty was the only constant, Cogence’s active, data-led approach, powered by partnerships with BlackRock and Vitality Healthy Futures, proved its worth. The firm’s blend of local insight, global diversification, and longevity-focused planning helped advisers and clients alike stay the course through turbulence.

At the heart of Cogence’s approach is a multi-dimensional view of financial planning. “We believe financial planning is three-dimensional,” Matthee-Ferreira explains. “You have your investment returns, which looks at growth; your savings behaviour; and what’s critical – longevity through health. 

Our partnership with Vitality Healthy Futures data help clients not just live longer but healthier lives in retirement.” This holistic perspective has become increasingly relevant in a year marked by market volatility and shifting economic trends.

The human touch still matters

Sattary emphasises the importance of the human and technological integration in their work. “My role is to bridge the gap between technical investment insights and practical support for advisers,” she says. “The Cogence portfolios are built by BlackRock, bringing their global expertise to local environment.” Sattary notes, “The investment environment is constantly evolving, and to stay relevant and make sure clients get what they need, Cogence is committed to evolving, enhancing, and innovating to respond to the changing markets.”  This collaboration with BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has given Cogence a global perspective. “It’s not just about having a presence in over 70 countries,” Sattary notes. “It’s about understanding the macro environment and using that to construct portfolios that are resilient, dynamic, and responsive to change.”

These uncertainties reinforced the importance of behavioural investment principles. Matthee-Ferreira underscores the value of staying invested: “The worst time to take money off the table is during a market dip. Education for advisers and clients has been critical and we’ve shown how staying invested through volatility maximises long-term outcomes.” Sattary adds, “This is where having a discretionary fund manager (DFM) really adds value. We de-risk client portfolios and guide advisors through these periods, ensuring informed decisions rather than emotional reactions.”

Technology lifts the load

Technology has been another cornerstone of 2025’s investment strategy. Sattary explains
how the Cogence technology platform addresses the multidimensional requirement of financial planning. 

Using Aladdin Wealth™, BlackRock’s industry-leading investment and risk technology platform, and Vitality Healthy Futures insights and data, advisers are able to generate co-branded holistic reporting with investment, health and wealth recommendations, tailored to their client’s individual financial planning needs. Uniquely, through the Aladdin Wealth™ stress-testing capability, advisers can understand the impact of potential market events on clients’ goals. This approach enables data-driven conversations, which are key to helping their clients remain invested despite volatile markets.

Artificial intelligence has long been embedded in BlackRock’s systematic strategies, even before the AI boom in 2022. “BlackRock has been using AI for almost 20 years in systematic strategies,” Sattary notes. “Tools like the thematic robot analyse earnings reports, detect sentiment, and support portfolio construction. The human element remains crucial, so while AI provides the data, humans interpret and act on it.”

Offshore continues its upsurge

Offshore exposure was also an important theme of 2025. Matthee-Ferreira highlights the advantages of Regulation 28 changes, which increased offshore investment limits. “South Africa is a small part of the global universe. Expanding offshore exposure widens opportunities and enhances diversification. Sattary adds that private markets are becoming a tool for enhanced offshore exposure. “With over 88% of global companies generating returns of more than $100bn being private, gaining access to this part of the global economy is important.” Sattary notes, “We have recently launched two new investment solutions, which include an allocation to unlisted private market assets across private equity, private debt, infrastructure, and real assets. These markets are largely uncorrelated with public markets and can provide deepened diversification, and potential enhanced returns.”

Remaining flexible is paramount

As 2025 closes, the lessons for advisers are clear: resilience, adaptability and a holistic view of financial planning are essential. Matthee-Ferreira emphasises the long-term picture, coupled with active tactical adjustments: “You need to focus on strategic asset allocation for long-term returns, while remaining nimble to take advantage of market opportunities. It’s about optimising outcomes with lower volatility.” Sattary summarises the approach: “Partnering with a specialist investment partner and considering savings behaviour, longevity and investment outcomes together ensures clients are in the best position to meet their financial goals.” 

Looking ahead to 2026, the team identifies themes likely to continue shaping portfolios: Demographic Divergence, Digital Disruption and AI, Fragmenting World, Future of Finance increasing the need for Private Markets, and Low Carbon transition. Certain countries, including the US and India, are expected to benefit from these mega forces, while alternative assets like gold and private markets remain key tools for diversification. As Matthee-Ferreira says, “The future of financing will see private markets play an increasingly important role. The structural transformation we’ve seen this year is just the beginning.”

For those navigating this dynamic environment, the lessons of 2025 – embracing uncertainty, leveraging technology, and thinking globally while acting locally – will be crucial as they step into the new year. “Ultimately,” concludes Matthee-Ferreira, “the lesson of 2025 was simple: volatility can be unsettling, but if managed well, it’s also the birthplace of opportunity.”