‘The outcome of the snap United Kingdom (UK) general election provides a strong political mandate for the now re-elected Conservative Party government to pass the necessary legislation through Parliament in time to leave the EU formally on January 31 and to initiate the first phase of Brexit.
“Britain will then move into transition, during which its EU membership will nevertheless in effect continue in terms of the negotiated withdrawal agreement.
“After January 31 next year the UK and EU will then start negotiating their future economic and political relations within the framework of an orderly Brexit. The clear general election outcome in the UK reduces the policy uncertainty that has prevailed around Brexit. Greater certainty and confidence about the future trading framework in 2020 can now return to decision-making by businesses and governments in both the U.K. and the EU.”
“But the latest UK election outcome is no ‘silver bullet’ for the Brexit issue,” Professor Parsons adds. He explains that Brexit is a process, not an event.
“Complex negotiations will now commence for a new long term free trade agreement between the UK and the EU, with a deadline at the end of 2020. If there is a failure to reach a free trade agreement by then, and unless an extension is agreed, the real risk remains of the UK leaving the EU with no trade deal in place, with all the supply-chain disruption and trade barriers that implies.”
Professor Parsons points out that SA has already fortunately recently concluded an agreement through the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) with the UK to ensure continuity and predictability in UK-South Africa (SA) trade relations in the post-Brexit period.
“SA’s post-Brexit trade relations with the UK are therefore protected for now. It nonetheless remains essential for SA to continue to monitor and nurture these important trade relations between SA and the UK during the Brexit transition and to timeously assess any new developments that may arise.”
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