A story of five economies 

The economic data released across five major economies this week told a single story in five different languages. The United States (US), United Kingdom (UK), eurozone, China and South Africa (SA) are not experiencing separate economic trends, they are all in the same boat but are navigating an energy shock, central bank paralysis and global growth deceleration, from five different positions of vulnerability. 

United States 

Start with the data point that moved markets most violently this week. The US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report for July, released on 7 August, came in at minus-23,000, against a consensus expectation of between 80,000 and 91,000. That was not merely a market underestimation, it was a market shock. June was revised down 37,000 and May by 66,000, leaving the combined two-month revision at minus-103,000. In a single release, the market’s picture of the US labour market shifted from softening to contracting and the market reaction was immediate: the dollar fell, Treasuries rallied, gold moved higher and equities pushed up as traders rapidly repriced the probability of a September rate hike from near certainty to a coin toss. 

But the headline number is merely the introduction to the story. The US unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%, which sounds like good news, until you unravel the reason behind the move – labour force participation has fallen. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings rose 3.2% year-on-year, the lowest increase since May 2021 and temporary layoffs jumped from 153,000 to 921,000 – their highest level since the post-COVID period. The August NFP, due 4 September, is now the most important data point on the forward calendar. Labour market uncertainty sits inside an already fractured Federal Reserve (Fed), as the nine-to-three vote on 29 July to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75% told us. In addition, US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation is running at 3.7% year-on-year, above the 2% target and second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) came in at 1.5% annualised, slowing from 2.1% in the first quarter. The US shows signs of growth decelerating faster than expected while inflation remains elevated and the Fed is torn between fighting inflation and buffering the labour market. 

United Kingdom 

Across the Atlantic, the UK is navigating a version of the same problem with less room. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation came in at 2.6% year-on-year in June, its lowest level since March 2025, and that number alone would normally give a central bank space to ease. The Bank of England (BoE) is, however, not easing and held rates steady on 30 July. Economists also do not expect any move before mid-2027, as energy prices remain the dominant risk on a forward-looking basis and are expected to drive inflation higher in the second half of 2026 as supply disruptions in the Middle East continue to work their way through the system. UK GDP for the second quarter grew by 1.2% year on year, while unemployment sits at 4.9%. This paints a picture of an economy that is not contracting but is also not generating enough momentum to feel confident about the trajectory. Added to this is a new government with a budget due in October, which has introduced a layer of political uncertainty that the market is pricing in but has not yet fully resolved. 

Eurozone 

The eurozone is carrying the heaviest energy burden of the three Western economies. The region’s inflation came in at 2.9% year-on-year in July, up from 2.8% in June, with energy inflation accelerating to 10% as US-Iran hostilities resumed after the ceasefire window closed. The European Central Bank (ECB) raised its deposit rate to 2.25% in June and economists expect another 25-basis point hike before year end – meaning the ECB is hiking rates into a slowdown, because the alternative is allowing energy-driven inflation to embed into wages and services. Eurozone GDP growth for 2026 is now projected to be around 1%, against the 1.3% expected before the war. Germany, France and Italy all recorded some economic deceleration in June, but the structural problem is unchanged. Europe imports a disproportionate share of its energy from regions now disrupted, the pass-through into industrial margins is ongoing and the political bandwidth for fiscal response is limited by fragile coalition governments in the bloc’s two largest economies. 

China 

China presents the sharpest contrast. It’s CPI fell to 0.5% year-on-year in July from 1.0% in June – a six-month low – driven by food deflation and a government-mandated fuel price cut, while Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation is running at negative 5.7% year-on-year and manufacturing’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has sat below 50 (contractionary territory) for five consecutive months. Where Western economies are fighting too much inflation, China is struggling to generate any with the domestic demand picture remaining the central problem – property starts are still running roughly 72% below their 2021 peak, consumer confidence has not recovered and the US tariff regime has structurally closed off a meaningful portion of China’s export market. China’s first quarter GDP of 5% was flattered by front-loaded exports ahead of tariff implementation but the underlying economy is growing at a slower pace than the headline suggests and Beijing’s stimulus response has been targeted rather than broad – a signal that policymakers are wary of repeating the credit-driven excesses of previous cycles. 

South Africa 

SA sits at the intersection of all of these external forces without the institutional buffers to absorb them. Local CPI rose to 5% year-on-year in June – its highest level since June 2024 – with PPI running at 7.5%. Unemployment hit 33.6% in the second quarter, a four-year high, while first quarter GDP grew 0.5% quarter-on-quarter. In June, SA added a feather to its cap as credit ratings agency, Fitch Ratings, upgraded SA to BB with a stable outlook, recognising improved fiscal management, however on the flip side, the operating environment has deteriorated in the months since. The RMB/BER Business Confidence Index dropped eight points to 39 in the second quarter, with firms citing Middle East-related fuel costs and tighter lending conditions as primary pressures. The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) held the repo rate at 7% on 23 July, indicating the difficult position the central bank finds itself in as it positions a hawkish hold with no room to ease into rising inflation and no appetite to hike into rising unemployment. 

Global outlook 

When looking at the collective, the data from this week paints a global economy that is grinding rather than growing. The Iran conflict has introduced an energy cost that the developed world cannot inflate away quickly, which China is absorbing as a deflationary pass-through and that emerging markets (EMs) like SA are experiencing on both sides simultaneously – those of higher input costs and weaker growth. Every central bank in this picture is constrained and does not have a clear path forward. What last Friday’s US NFP shock did was remind markets of something they had been reluctant to confront – the world’s largest economy is not immune to the same forces that are slowing growth everywhere else and that central banks are facing increasingly less room for error. 

Turning to the markets 

The week’s key themes: 

• US 10-year Treasury yields eased as soft producer prices took a Fed rate hike further off the table 
• Wall Street closed at a fresh record as cooler inflation reignited the soft-landing trade 
• Gold slipped back from a seven-week high on profit-taking, shrugging off a softer dollar, while crude steadied after a heavy week 
•  The dollar is languishing near a two-month low, leaving the rand within reach of its firmest level since early March 

Bonds 

The US 10-year Treasury yield eased to around 4.65%, down roughly four basis points on Thursday and extended a pullback from the 19-month high near 4.75% struck earlier in the week. The move was a direct response to the soft July PPI reading, which followed a tame CPI and reassured a market that had been braced for sticky, artificial intelligence (AI)-inflected goods inflation. With a September hike now seen as a low-probability tail, the front end has firmed and the whole curve has deepened modestly. For hedgers, the practical read is that near-term US rate risk has shifted from “how many hikes” back toward “when do cuts resume” – a materially more dollar-negative backdrop. 

Germany’s 10-year bund yield edged down to about 3.13%, off around two basis points, tracking the move in US Treasuries rather than responding to a fresh domestic catalyst. Bunds remain the low-yielding anchor of the developed market and the roughly 150 basis point gap to Treasuries continues to reflect the ECB’s more advanced and comfortable disinflation path relative to the Fed’s live inflation debate. Should there be no eurozone data surprise today, bunds are likely to take their direction from the US retail sales print and any Fed commentary. 

The UK’s 10-year gilt yield slipped to roughly 4.95%, down around three basis points and remains the highest yielding government bond among the major developed benchmarks – a persistent reflection of the UK’s stickier inflation profile and the BoE’s cautious, gradualist stance after holding the Bank Rate steady in July. BoE Governor, Andrew Bailey’s signal that disinflation is “on track” has kept a lid on gilt yields, but the elevated absolute level underlines that gilts still carry a term premium the market demands for UK-specific fiscal and inflation risk. Softer global energy prices are a marginal help here. 

The 10-year South African Government Bond yield sits near 8.58%, easing around two-to-three basis points in sympathy with the global move. The rand’s strength and a constructive global risk tone are supportive at this margin. The main domestic anchor is the SARB’s surprise July hold, which signalled a central bank unwilling to ease into lingering inflation and currency risk. That hawkish-hold posture is, paradoxically, part of what is underpinning both the bond and the currency. 

Equities 

The S&P 500 closed at a record high, just above 7,800, up about 0.65% on Thursday, having printed an intraday all-time high near 7,817. The NASDAQ Composite led with a gain of around 0.8% to roughly 26,800, while the Dow lagged, adding only about 0.13% to near 53,840. The split is the story where benign inflation and lower yields disproportionately reward long-duration tech, so the index-level record was carried by megacap growth rather than by breadth. The message for positioning is that the rally remains narrow and rate-driven, which is powerful while the disinflation-plus-no-hike narrative holds, but is vulnerable to any upside inflation or yield surprise. 

The Euro Stoxx 50 closed firmer at around 6,547, up roughly 0.2%, leaving it just shy of the record high near 6,582 set earlier this month. European gains have been earnings-led rather than macro-led, with standout corporate updates – a sharp jump in financial technology firm, Adyen, after a revenue upgrade and a strong result from global logistics group, Maersk – doing more of the lifting than the US inflation data. The proximity to record highs, achieved on fundamentals rather than pure multiple expansion, is a healthier backdrop than the narrow US leadership, though a stronger euro is a growing headwind for the bloc’s large exporters. 

The UK’s FTSE 100 was the laggard among majors, easing around 0.27% to roughly 10,803 and pulling back from July’s record near 10,991. The drag was concentrated and mechanical: the index’s heavy energy and pharma weightings worked against it, with Shell and BP each down more than 1% on softer crude and AstraZeneca and GSK lower, compounded by a retailer downgrade weighing on Tesco. This is the flip side of the FTSE’s commodity-heavy composition – the same energy exposure that helps when oil prices rally hurts when they slip. 

The JSE All Share Index printed around 114,900 to 115,000 at Wednesday’s close, having eased about 0.8% as bullion came off its recent highs, and has been broadly steady-to-firm given the constructive global tone. The index has been trading close to record territory this month and the driver is the same one that dominates rand and rate dynamics – gold. Mining companies, Gold Fields and AngloGold Ashanti have been among the leaders on the bullion run and platinum names have also contributed. The domestic index remains a leveraged play on the precious metals complex and global risk appetite, which cuts both ways as gold consolidates. 

Commodities 

Spot gold is trading around $4,340/ounce to 4,350/ounce, down roughly 1.3%, a pullback that comes directly off a seven-week high reached earlier in the week. The retreat is best read as profit-taking rather than a change of trend as the softer dollar and steady central-bank buying remain structural tailwinds and the metal is still up on the order of 7% over the past month and around 30% year-on-year. For South African producers and the JSE, this consolidation just below the highs matters as much as the absolute level – the rand-gold price stays historically rich, but the day’s dip is a reminder that the miners’ recent outperformance is tethered to a market that has run hard and fast. 

Brent crude is hovering near $87/barrel, essentially flat on Thursday after a soft week, with West Texas Intermediate around $82/barrel. The push-and-pull is clear: on the bearish side the International Energy Agency has trimmed its global demand outlook, warning that prolonged conflict and high prices are eating into consumption; on the bullish side, supply risk around the Strait of Hormuz persists, with stalled Iran diplomacy and tankers reportedly moving with transponders off. The oil price has ground lower through a week that has, importantly, been a tailwind for the disinflation narrative – cheaper energy feeding directly into the softer CPI and PPI prints that drove the equity and bond moves. 

Currencies 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is sitting near 99.9, effectively flat but pinned close to a two-month low after a week of grinding losses. The catalyst chain is straightforward as the shock US jobs contraction and this week’s soft inflation data have removed the hawkish “hike” premium that had supported the currency and with the Fed’s next move once again seen as more likely a cut than a hike, the dollar has lost its yield-advantage narrative. The DXY has weakened around 1% over the past month. For corporates, this is a dollar on the back foot and the burden of proof now sits with US data – today’s retail sales chief among them – to arrest the slide. 

The euro is trading around $1.1528/€ and is holding near a two-month high. The move is more a dollar story than a euro one, though improving eurozone risk sentiment and a reassessment of Middle East and US-Iran dynamics have helped. A break and hold above the $1.15/€ area keeps the near-term bias constructive, but the level is a double-edged sword for the bloc because it is supportive of imported disinflation but unhelpful for the exporters that have been driving the Euro Stoxx to records. 

Sterling is around $1.3478/£, marginally softer but still close to its highest level since mid-July. The pound is riding the same reduced-Fed-hike wave as its peers, with additional support from a BoE that held rates steady in July and a labour market showing signs of stabilisation, even as starting-salary growth ticked up to a six-month high. Softer oil is a modest disinflationary help. The set-up is constructive but unspectacular as the exchange rate is being carried by dollar weakness more than by any decisive sterling-positive domestic story. 

The rand is trading around R16.20/$, a touch softer, after a strong run, but holding close to its firmest level since early March. Three forces are aligned in its favour: a soft dollar and receding US rate risk, a constructive global risk tone drawing flows toward higher-yielding EM assets and the carry appeal of a 7% repo rate that the SARB surprised markets with by holding in July. Cheaper oil is an added bonus for a net energy importer. 

What to watch 

The immediate focus is on today’s US July retail sales, the final major print of an inflation-heavy week and the market’s next test of the soft-landing thesis (where a central bank successfully lowers inflation by raising interest rates, but cools growth just enough to avoid a recession). A strong number will complicate the “no more hikes” consensus and could snap the dollar’s slide, while a soft reading would reinforce this week’s moves. The University of Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations follow. Looking into next week, attention shifts to the July Federal Open Market Committee minutes and the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, where any pushback on the market’s dovish repricing would be the primary risk to the current risk-on tone. For sterling and the euro, the domestic data calendar is lighter, leaving both currencies being held largely hostage to the dollar. 

For the rand specifically, the global risk tone set by US data and Jackson Hole, which governs EM portfolio flows will be critical, followed by the domestic policy and data backdrop where the SARB’s hawkish-hold at 7% remains supportive of carry ahead of its next Monetary Policy Committee meeting and where any local inflation or fiscal surprise could inject idiosyncratic volatility. The rand entered today well-supported but with its recent gains resting heavily on a gold market that has just paused for breath. 

*Please note that all information is at the time of writing.