Surprise of the week

So preoccupied have I been with the Budget, the ‘broken’ country, the jammed signal, and general work and life issues that I nearly missed the market hitting an all time high. For a brief and fleeting moment 53 – something – was the level of the JSE. The country is in a state of distress, the economy is in more distress, parliament is who knows what, employment is scarcer than scarce. And the market roars. The rand doesn’t – but the market does.

When did we hit a high – when good international economic data came through. Our JSE is global.

I quite like that our stock market can soldier on – it’s quite an achievement and a testament to the great businesses we have in SA. Call it the influence of foreign ownership – with all of those issues – but if we didn’t have the good businesses we might not be roaring as much. Of course – this money can leave.

The flip side of this is that we fall into an illusion of believing things are not as bad as they seem. I know that there are a lot of positives – but we can no longer continue to quote these when what is wrong is badly wrong. The JSE is great – but don’t for one minute believe it is a reflection of the country’s economy.

Next week is Budget – I will be keen to see what the news is on the retirement front and NHI. There is a keen watch on increasing revenue – but personally I would like a bit more certainty on the reform process and some more clarity on NHI would be welcome. Quite a few years ago someone asked me what I thought of NHI. I thought then that the money would run out. (I also think fixing the public health sector, piece by piece, would make a huge difference).

And then we really need to get a big focus on the interest bill and the public sector wage bill. The interest rate bill is not really productive money – and the public sector wage bill is ballooning – and effectiveness is again questionable.