Tag ArchivesFNB

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Robust retail sales to lift GDP

By Jason Muscat, FNB Senior Economic Analyst. December retail trade sales far exceeded our expectations, rising 5.3% y/y, but down -2.6% m/m on a seasonally adjusted basis. General dealers, clothing and “other retailers each added 1.4 pps (4.2 pps cumulatively), jumping 3.3% y/y, 5.9% and 14.7% respectively. In what may be tentative signs of a […]

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Risks inhibit cut as SARB leaves rates unchanged, says FNB

Following the South African Reserve Bank’s decision earlier today to keep interest rates unchanged, FNB confirms that it will maintain its prime lending rate at 10,25% and will review its position after the next SARB MPC meeting in March. (more…)

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Black Friday bonanza for November retail sales

By Jason Muscat, FNB Senior Economic Analyst November retail trade sales surpassed even our bullish expectations, registering 8.2% y/y from an upwardly revised 3.5% in October. This was the strongest year-on-year performance in five years. (more…)

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New bank to be launched in SA

Bank Zero has been granted a provisional licence after a rigorous in-depth evaluation process by the South African Reserve Bank. The 45% black-owned bank is set to launch in the fourth quarter of 2018. (more…)

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Slowdown in civil construction activity deepens in Q4

· After falling to a 17-year low in 3Q2017, the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index gained 4 points to register a level of 19 in 4Q2017. · Despite the slight uptick in confidence, growth in construction activity slowed further. · The survey results suggest that the outlook, especially for activity, remains downbeat. (more…)

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Inflation eases to 4.6%

By Jason Muscat, FNB Senior Economic Analyst. November consumer price inflation came in slightly below our expectations at 4.6% y/y and 0.1% m/m. While services inflation remains sticky at 5.5% y/y, goods inflation fell from 4.1% in October to 3.7% in November and core inflation softened further to 4.4%. As grain and cereal inflation continues […]

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Building Confidence Index moves lower in Q4

* The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index shed 4 points to register a level
of 31 in 4Q2017. * Four of the six sub-sectors reported lower confidence in the quarter, led by building material manufacturers. (more…)

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GDP surprises with 2% expansion

By Jason Muscat, FNB Senior Economic Analyst. 3Q17 GDP expanded by a robust 2% q/q, ahead of consensus forecasts, but below our bullish call. 2Q17 GDP was upwardly revised to 2.8% q/q from 2.5. Growth was almost entirely driven by the agriculture, mining and manufacturing sectors, which expanded by 44.2% q/q, 6.6% and 4.3% respectively, […]

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